An independent poll shows the Republican primary in the new 23rd Congressional District between Carl Paladino and Nick Langworthy to be a dead heat.
The poll by Barry Zeplowitz and Associates of Buffalo, released earlier this week, showed if the election were held today each candidate would receive 32% of the vote of likely voters in the Aug. 23 primary.
The poll also showed 23% of the 400 respondents from across the seven counties of the new 23rd District held a very favorable view of Langworthy, the state Republican chairman and a former Erie County GOP chairman, compared to 24% for Paladino, the Buffalo developer and former GOP candidate for governor.
In addition, another 22% indicated a somewhat favorable view of both candidates, the poll showed.
Zeplowitz said his polling showed Paladino with a higher name recognition by voters than Langworthy — 92% to 76%.
At the same time, the poll showed Langworthy with a 45% favorable rating and 14% unfavorable to 46% favorable and 28% unfavorable.
Paladino this week reiterated his decision not to debate in each of the seven counties of the new 23rd Congressional District.
The polling by Zeplowitz showed Paladino’s strength centered on Erie and Steuben counties, while Langworthy leads in Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Allegany, Schuyler and Chemung counties.
Political observers see the poll as independent of either Republican candidate. Zeplowitz has disclosed that he has in the past worked on Paladino’s Buffalo Board of Education campaign and once for the state Republican Committee. He also donated $99 to Langworthy’s campaign, which drew criticism from Paladino.
Zeplowitz did not predict a winner, but called the contest “wide open.”
Both candidates are facing the same challenge. People are not used to voting in August — for anything. They have other things on their mind in late summer.
To further complicate matters, Aug. 23 is the date of the special election to fill the unexpired term of former congressman Tom Reed, a Republican from Corning, who resigned in May to take a lobbying job in Washington, D.C.
Turnout is traditionally low in primaries to begin with. Whoever is able to convince the most Republicans to come out and vote in the conservative district will be the winner.
The new 23rd district, where U.S. Rep. Chris Jacobs, R-Orchard Park, had been expected to prevail, was turned upside down when Jacobs said he would support an assault weapons ban after the May 14 killings of 10 Black people at an East Buffalo supermarket.
The towns of southern and eastern Erie County have about 40% of the new district’s Republican voter enrollment.
Langworthy held a town Hall in Olean at the John J. Ash Community Center on Monday, attended by about 100 Republicans, including Cattaraugus County GOP Chairman Robert C. Keis Sr.
On Wednesday Langworthy held a similar meeting in Elmira. He has been rolling out endorsements by local officials across the district, as has Paladino.
Langworthy also called out Paladino for hiding from debates, media interviews and from providing his sources of income. He called Paladino “Cowardly Carl,” reminiscent of Donald Trump belittling primary opponents in 2016.
Paladino responded by calling his opponent “Lying Langworthy.”
Langworthy plans a meet and greet Monday from 5:30 to 6:30 p.m. at the Wellsville Country Club, 3006 Riverside Drive, Wellsville, according to Allegany County Republican Chairman Mike Healey announced.
Interested persons should email: events@nicklangworthy.com or call (716) 249-4842.
